A Statistical Model For Job Searching

A Model For Job Hunts

We want a negative binomial distribution (that is a Hyper-Geometric Function with $k=1$) where we draw until a single success occurs.

In that case, if we have a probability of success of $p$ and we want $m$ successes, we’ll need to perform $\frac{m}{p}$ trials.

(I did not re-derive the formula above and found it on this post)

For example if we estimate the probably of success of getting any one job is 2%, we’d need to send out 50 job applications to expect one success.